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Crowd predictions
2026 MTV Video Music Awards
Final resultsCrowd predictions

2026 MTV Video Music Awards 2026

Here's who 70+ ballots backed, and who took it.

Categories called
19
Ballots counted
70+
Crowd accuracy
37%7 of 19 called

What the crowd called

The picks the room got right.

Where the crowd missed

What players backed, and who took the award.

Predicted versus what won

19 categories, each with the crowd pick beside the winner.

Video of the Year

Based on 70+ ballots

Crowd called itFavorite

Predicted, and it won

"The Fate of Ophelia" — Taylor Swift

38%

  • "Hate That I Made You Love Me" — Ariana Grande

    26%
  • "Tears" — Sabrina Carpenter

    19%
  • "I Just Might" — Bruno Mars

    7%
  • "Storm" — Gener8ion & Yung Lean

    6%
Show all 6 nominees
  • "Confessions II — The Film" — Madonna

    4%

Artist of the Year

Based on 70+ ballots

UpsetFavorite

Won

Madonna

7%

Predicted

Sabrina Carpenter

43%

  • Taylor Swift

    21%
  • Ariana Grande

    17%
  • Bruno Mars

    9%
  • Madonna

    Winner
    7%
Show all 6 nominees
  • Morgan Wallen

    3%

Song of the Year

Based on 65+ ballots

UpsetToss-up

Won

"Swim" — BTS

16%

Predicted

"Choosin' Texas" — Ella Langley

28%

  • "Man I Need" — Olivia Dean

    19%
  • "Golden" — Huntr/X

    16%
  • "Swim" — BTS

    Winner
    16%
  • "Stateside" — PinkPantheress and Zara Larsson

    13%
Show all 7 nominees
  • "Where Is My Husband!" — Raye

    8%
  • "Bring Your Love" — Madonna

    0%

Best New Artist

Based on 70+ ballots

Crowd called itToss-up

Predicted, and it won

Sienna Spiro

32%

  • Cortis

    30%
  • Stella Lefty

    17%
  • Malcolm Todd

    10%
  • Myles Smith

    7%
Show all 7 nominees
  • Magnus Ferrell

    4%
  • Bella Kay

    0%

Best Collaboration

Based on 65+ ballots

UpsetFavorite

Won

"Bring Your Love" — Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter

15%

Predicted

"Stateside" — PinkPantheress and Zara Larsson

41%

  • "Dai Dai" — Shakira and Burna Boy

    29%
  • "Bring Your Love" — Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter

    Winner
    15%
  • "Chains & Whips" — Clipse, Kendrick Lamar, Pusha T, and Malice

    10%
  • "Hard Part" — Teyana Taylor and Lucky Daye

    3%
Show all 6 nominees
  • "Ever Since U Left Me" — French Montana and Max B

    2%

Best Pop

Based on 65+ ballots

UpsetToss-up

Won

"Dream" — Lisa featuring Kentaro Sakaguchi

3%

Predicted

"The Fate of Ophelia" — Taylor Swift

30%

  • "Drop Dead" — Olivia Rodrigo

    25%
  • "House Tour" — Sabrina Carpenter

    25%
  • "Hate That I Made You Love Me" — Ariana Grande

    13%
  • "Dream" — Lisa featuring Kentaro Sakaguchi

    Winner
    3%
Show all 7 nominees
  • "Nobody's Girl" — Tate McRae

    2%
  • "SS26" — Charli xcx

    2%

Best Hip-Hop

Based on 65+ ballots

UpsetFavorite

Won

"Safe" — Cardi B feat. Kehlani

12%

Predicted

"Sugar on My Tongue" — Tyler, the Creator

36%

  • "Janice STFU" — Drake

    17%
  • "E85" — Don Toliver

    14%
  • "Safe" — Cardi B feat. Kehlani

    Winner
    12%
  • "Dumbo" — Travis Scott

    11%
Show all 6 nominees
  • "Lover Girl" — Megan Thee Stallion

    10%

Best R&B

Based on 65+ ballots

Crowd called itLock

Predicted, and it won

"I Just Might" — Bruno Mars

60%

  • "Yukon" — Justin Bieber

    21%
  • "Folded" — Kehlani

    13%
  • "Is It a Crime" — Mariah the Scientist and Kali Uchis

    6%
  • "It Depends/Obvious" — Chris Brown

    0%
Show all 6 nominees
  • "Raindance" — Dave and Tems

    0%

Best Alternative

Based on 65+ ballots

Crowd called itFavorite

Predicted, and it won

"The Cure" — Olivia Rodrigo

46%

  • "The Great Divide" — Noah Kahan

    21%
  • "Dracula" — Tame Impala

    15%
  • "Homewrecker" — Sombr

    10%
  • "Fix Ur Face" — MGK and Fred Durst

    5%
Show all 7 nominees
  • "Drag Path" — Twenty One Pilots

    3%
  • "Taxes" — Geese

    0%

Best Dance Video

Based on 65+ ballots

UpsetToss-up

Won

"Confessions II — The Film" — Madonna

12%

Predicted

"Stateside" — PinkPantheress and Zara Larsson

30%

  • "Nobody's Girl" — Tate McRae

    23%
  • "Aperture" — Harry Styles

    15%
  • "Runway" — Lady Gaga and Doechii

    14%
  • "Confessions II — The Film" — Madonna

    Winner
    12%
Show all 7 nominees
  • "New Religion" — Bebe Rexha and Faithless

    5%
  • "Dance..." — Slayyyter

    1%

Best Latin

Based on 65+ ballots

UpsetFavorite

Won

"Nuevayol" — Bad Bunny

30%

Predicted

"Dai Dai" — Shakira and Burna Boy

48%

  • "Nuevayol" — Bad Bunny

    Winner
    30%
  • "Choka Choka" — Anitta with Shakira

    9%
  • "Papasito" — Karol G

    5%
  • "La Perla" — Rosalía featuring Yahritza y Su Esencia

    3%
Show all 7 nominees
  • "La Villa" — Ryan Castro, Kapo and Gangsta

    3%
  • "Tu Sancho" — Fuerza Regida

    2%

Best K-Pop

Based on 65+ ballots

UpsetToss-up

Won

"Swim" — BTS

30%

Predicted

"Pinky Up" — Katseye

33%

  • "Swim" — BTS

    Winner
    30%
  • "Redred" — Cortis

    10%
  • "Spaghetti" — Le Sserafim featuring J-hope of BTS

    10%
  • "Dream feat. Kentaro Sakaguchi" — Lisa

    9%
Show all 6 nominees
  • "Jump" — Blackpink

    8%

Best Country

Based on 65+ ballots

Crowd called itFavorite

Predicted, and it won

"Choosin' Texas" — Ella Langley

53%

  • "Back in the Saddle" — Luke Combs

    9%
  • "Boston" — Stella Lefty

    9%
  • "Cowgirl" — Shaboozey

    9%
  • "Dry Spell" — Kacey Musgraves

    9%
Show all 7 nominees
  • "Brunette" — Tucker Wetmore

    6%
  • "Somewhere Over Laredo" — Lainey Wilson

    5%

Best Direction

Based on 65+ ballots

Crowd called itToss-up

Predicted, and it won

"Opalite" — Taylor Swift

30%

  • "Hate That I Made You Love Me" — Ariana Grande

    29%
  • "House Tour" — Sabrina Carpenter

    24%
  • "I Just Might" — Bruno Mars

    9%
  • "Confessions II — The Film" — Madonna

    8%
Show all 6 nominees
  • "Storm" — Gener8ion featuring Yung Lean

    0%

Best Art Direction

Based on 65+ ballots

UpsetFavorite

Won

"Stateside + Zara Larsson" — PinkPantheress

18%

Predicted

"The Fate of Ophelia" — Taylor Swift

50%

  • "Stateside + Zara Larsson" — PinkPantheress

    Winner
    18%
  • "Runway" — Lady Gaga and Doechii

    15%
  • "My Body Isn't Ready" — Sombr

    9%
  • "Confessions II - The Film" — Madonna

    5%
Show all 6 nominees
  • "SS26" — Charli xcx

    3%

Best Cinematography

Based on 65+ ballots

UpsetToss-up

Won

"Confessions II — The Film" — Madonna

11%

Predicted

"The Fate of Ophelia" — Taylor Swift

41%

  • "Hate That I Made You Love Me" — Ariana Grande

    32%
  • "Confessions II — The Film" — Madonna

    Winner
    11%
  • "Dream" — Lisa featuring Kentaro Sakaguchi

    6%
  • "Punk Rocky" — A$AP Rocky

    6%
Show all 6 nominees
  • "Cowgirl" — Shaboozey

    4%

Best Editing

Based on 65+ ballots

UpsetToss-up

Won

"House Tour" — Sabrina Carpenter

26%

Predicted

"Hate That I Made You Love Me" — Ariana Grande

35%

  • "House Tour" — Sabrina Carpenter

    Winner
    26%
  • "The Fate of Ophelia" — Taylor Swift

    20%
  • "I Just Might" — Bruno Mars

    7%
  • "Confessions II — The Film" — Madonna

    6%
Show all 6 nominees
  • "Dream" — Lisa featuring Kentaro Sakaguchi

    6%

Best Choreography

Based on 65+ ballots

UpsetFavorite

Won

"Confessions II - The Film" — Madonna

5%

Predicted

"Pinky Up" — Katseye

41%

  • "The Fate of Ophelia" — Taylor Swift

    30%
  • "Dance No More" — Harry Styles

    14%
  • "Nobody's Girl" — Tate McRae

    6%
  • "Confessions II - The Film" — Madonna

    Winner
    5%
Show all 6 nominees
  • "Storm" — Gener8ion featuring Yung Lean

    4%

Best Visual Effects

Based on 65+ ballots

Crowd called itFavorite

Predicted, and it won

"Hate That I Made You Love Me" — Ariana Grande

50%

  • "The Fate of Ophelia" — Taylor Swift

    20%
  • "Stateside + Zara Larsson" — PinkPantheress

    11%
  • "Confessions II - The Film" — Madonna

    9%
  • "Eyes Closed" — Jisoo and Zayn

    6%
Show all 6 nominees
  • "Click Clack Symphony" — Raye featuring Hans Zimmer

    4%

The call

The room already has a favorite

Locks, coin flips, and the names everyone is riding into the night.

  1. The locks

    The picks the crowd is treating as done.

  2. The toss-ups

    The races close enough to argue about all night.

  3. Every category

    The full ballot, ranked by how hard the room is leaning.

  4. Your call

    Make your own picks and see if you can beat the crowd.